Three months ago, just after the various CHL seasons began, I compared the teams that were higher in the official CHL rankings to the teams that were higher in my own statistical rankings. Let’s see how they’ve done since then. (I’ll also include their straight-up seeding in their own conference so I’m not just comparing my rankings in the past to my rankings now.)
Higher in official rankings
Prince Albert: 41 SRS, 51 RPI, 9/12 in conference
Blainville-Boisbriand: 10 SRS, 7 RPI, 2/18 in league
Charlottetown: 50 SRS, 55 RPI, 14/18 in league
Rimouski: 17 SRS, 19 RPI, 4/18 in league
These were all in the CHL Top 10 and now only one out of four is a top-10 team.
Higher in my rankings
Everett: 19 SRS, 20 RPI, 6/10 in conference
Portland: 4 SRS, 3 RPI, 2/10 in conference
Guelph: 2 RPI, 2 SRS, 1/10 in conference
I doubt I’ll get much argument when I say this is a better set of teams than the first group, or at least it’s a group that has performed better from September to January. The highest official ranking for any of these teams back then was Guelph’s No. 8. Probably fair to say that they should have been ranked higher in hindsight, though of course the whole point of this exercise is to have no hindsight.
Here is the next version of this, adding midseason rankings into the mix (CHL rankings, by NHL scouts, as of 1/15):
Higher in official rankings now
Rimouski (9 CHL / 17 SRS / 19 RPI)
Sudbury (HM CHL / 36 SRS / 26 RPI)
Higher in my rankings now
Edmonton (NR CHL / 6 SRS / 18 RPI)
Spokane (NR CHL / 13 SRS / 9 RPI)
Val-d’Or (NR CHL / 8 SRS / 11 RPI)
We will revisit all of this after the playoffs.